The Neuroscience of Near Misses: Why Almost Winning Keeps Players Coming Back

Picture this… You are at your favourite brick-and-mortar establishment, enjoying a game of poker with your pals, watching the cards land as the croupier coordinates the game. When the results are eventually announced, you see that you were a hair’s breadth away from winning the Jackpot. This situation has played out in so many local casinos and iGaming platforms. When that happens, what do most of us do? While the response might not be coordinated, it is most likely that you’ll continue wagering in the hopes of striking a win since you were a whisker away from winning the grand prize.

Casinos and online gambling platforms have long leveraged the psychology of the scenario we’ve just played out to you. iGaming juggernauts like xon bet casino have long capitalized on this by designing games where near misses occur at strategic intervals, keeping the engagement levels high. Truth is, most of us are compelled by that feeling of coming so close to winning that we’re willing to stick around and try again. So, today, we take a Neuroscientific approach and try to get to the bottom of this concept, particularly through the lens of gambling.

Avid gamers, and even some novice punters, are well aware of the fact and the constant motif that many oldheads have sung through the ages that the house always wins. Yet, even with the mountains of evidence that back up this motif, we always find ourselves coming back, trying against all odds to beat the house. Millions of punters across the globe continue coming back, particularly when they come close to winning. This begs the question, why does almost clinching a win feel even more compelling than incurring an outright loss?

The conundrum is best addressed by the near-miss theory, a construct that was studied at length by R. L Reid, author of the book Near Miss. In his book, Reid identified three main observations that could best explain this construct. They are as follows:

● A near miss isn’t your ordinary kind of failure. In essence, it feels more like an almost success. Beyond the casino floor, imagine you’re a professional football player who’s just missed a goal by a whisker, or you’re Steph Curry in the NBA, and you’ve just missed a game-changing shot by a small margin. Instead of feeling defeated, something inside you comes alive, a motivation to keep on shooting because, who knows, the next shot could go a step further and could be the game-winning shot.

● Even with unchanging odds, these close moments encourage continued play. Forget about the pros for a second, and let’s come back to the gambling realm. Each spin of the wheel you make, each roll of the dice, in the iGaming realm is independent of the last. So, unlike in professional settings where the previous attempt may refine your next shot, there’s no saying that your next shot will be better. Yet, even when handed these facts, most gamers, seasoned or not, will keep trying in the misguided belief that they’ll do better just because they almost won in the last round.

● Near misses are almost always seen as encouraging signs that success may just be around the corner. While at the slot spinning game, you may just come shy of a jackpot spinning. Even with the knowledge that slots are powered by Random Number generators that ensure that results are arbitrary, most players will undoubtedly think that they are close to winning. This is with the knowledge that the results in each round aren’t related in any capacity.

At the core of this underlying phenomenon lies an interesting link to another psychological theory dubbed the expectancy theory. This theory suggests that people are more likely to take action based on the anticipated outcomes. This influences a cognitive bias where punters think that their next wager is likely to be influenced by the last, even though wager outcomes are arbitrary in nature.

Gamers who’ve almost registered wins will attest that a unique cocktail of emotions follows that ultimately may influence you to place another wager:

● Frustration: This is a downcast feeling that will leave you needing a redemptive moment.

● Excitement: Even after experiencing the loss, your mind becomes determined to counter the loss in the next round.

● Hope: Your gut tells you that you will be redeemed in the next wagering round, and your win is just one wager away.

Another reason why this psychological construct is so powerful is the additional sense of control that it hands punters. People familiar with this industry will let you know that all gamers, whether seasoned or novice, start their sessions with an innate sense of control. Now, imagine this existing belief being compounded by a near-miss situation. It causes many players to think that their skills are improving, which is why they want to take that extra step to ensure an almost certain win.

The psychological construct of near misses means that the losses we incur feel like progress to many gamers. As such, even if they had not intended to, punters find themselves engaged beyond their initial intentions. With casino platforms being in the business of keeping their gamers engaged, this concept is a very important tool in their arsenal. Many sites out there engineer almost-wins scenarios, with many players taking the bait by seeking out the next big payout.